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2016 Mid-Year Housing Report

2016 Mid-Year Housing Report

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This Lamacchia Mid-Year Housing Report presents overall home sale statistics as of the first six months of 2016 compared to the same period (January 1st to June 30th) in 2015. Highlighted in this report are the average sale prices for single-family, condominiums, and multi-family homes in Massachusetts and New Hampshire.

There was an extreme contrast between last year’s start to the year with the winter’s Snowmaggedon and this year’s below average snow fall and overall mild winter. Since the weather was more favorable this year more people went on the market in February, March and April which gave the market an early start.

Massachusetts Home Sales Up 21%

The early start really helped the growth of the market this winter and spring with a 21% rise in Massachusetts homes sales compared to the first 6 months of the year in 2015. There were a total of 41,224 homes sold this year compared to 34,005 in 2015. January had an increase of 28%, February increased by 29% and March had the highest bump with 30% and since, it has still been increasing but is slowly starting to creep back to normal with June being up by 11%.

MA Homes Sold 2014-2016

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Massachusetts Prices Increased by Almost 3%

Overall home prices increased by 2.92% from January 1st to June 30th with an average of $390,490 for singles, condo’s and multifamily homes compared to $379,415 in the same period in 2015. This is almost exactly the same increase as we had from 2014 to 2015.  February was actually down 2.3% but this was after January which had an increase of over 6% since then it has been a steady increase of 3%-4% each month compared to the same time last year.

MA home prices by month

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Southern New Hampshire Home Sales Up 37%

Overall home sales were up an astonishing 37% from January 1st to June 30th with 5,942 homes sold compared to 4,330 sales in 2015. Last year they were down 2% from 2014 to 2015 so this is an impressive improvement.   February increase was 59%, April increased 62% while May increased 64%, but is slowing down with the June capping at 13% growth from last year.

NH total homes sold by month

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Southern New Hampshire Prices Dip 3%

Surprisingly, home prices dipped by almost 3% with an average price of $257,804 compared to an average of $265,533 in 2015. We did not expect to see the prices dip so much from last year especially considering that home prices usually trail home sales.  It could be a fluke and could be because of some unusually low priced sales that pulled the average down.  The reasoning will be more clear in the months to come.

NH Homes Prices

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Homes Listed in Massachusetts:

There were 59,857 homes listed for sale in the first six months of the 2015 according to MLSPIN compared to 60,150 this year.  That represents a 0.5% increase in homes listed.  There were more homes listed for sale in January, February, March, which makes sense due to all the snow in 2015 but then less homes were listed in AprilMay, and June as the market caught up.

Pending Home Sales:

The best indicator of home sales to come is pending home sales. These numbers tell us total contracts accepted but not yet closed. From January 1st 2016 to June 30th 2016 there were contracts accepted on 50,824 homes compared to 46,387 in the same period in 2015. This represents a 9.6% increase which is strong. This clearly shows a stronger market than 2015.  However pending sales were down 5% in June so it looks like the pace of sales over 2015 will likely slowdown in the months to come.

Predictions for the Rest of the Year:

Brexit is a gift to homebuyersBack in March Anthony was interviewed on WHDH Channel 7 on Urban Update and he predicted that homes sales in 2016 would be the highest since 2005.  Based on how this year is shaping up it looks clear that that will be the case.  In 2015 there was about 84,000 homes sold but it was not enough to beat 2006 which had about 88,000 home sales. If the strength of this year’s market keeps up as it appears that it will we will surpass 2006!  All indications seem to be that this will happen.  Not only the demand in the market is strong but Brexit really was a Gift with a Bow on Top to Homebuyers and that has seemed to create a surge in the market in July as buyers are trying to jump in to take advantage of the low rates. This was seen immediately after Brexit when rates dropped in the week leading up to July 4th as Anthony explained in his weekly market report on July 13th.  Over the last four months, inventory of homes for sale at a given time has tracked about 20% lower than it was a year ago.  This is illustrated in the graph below which tracks the past 18 months.

Monthly inventory report

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